Revealed: secret to winning penalty shootouts
- Neil Mckeown
- Apr 24
- 3 min read
If this weekend’s FA Cup semi-finals go to spot kicks, supporters need to be “gagging” for penalties to help their team through, a psychologist says.
Research shows belief in luck = luckier
Keepers tend to move
Young players more likely to score
Dr David Luke, an expert in luck and chance, says: "Research shows that people who believe in luck are luckier, and collective consciousness exists, even if it's on a small level.
"The pressure on the taker means they're thinking 'I don't want to be the one to fail' rather than 'I'm going to be the hero.'
"You need to switch that around. The team needs to concentrate on technique so much that it ceases to be an issue.
“Supporters, for their part, have to want penalties, be gagging for them! Penalty shootouts are fine margins and every little helps.
"Superstition and ritual are common in football – lucky socks, for example. Superstition also increases in anxious and pressure situations, lucky mascots in exams are a good example. In the First World War the sales of lucky rabbits' feet went through the roof as soldiers took them to battle.”
With one semi-final going to penalties in each of the last two seasons (both won by Manchester United), it isn’t something to leave to chance.
Wellness firm Centre You looked at the four semi-finalists in terms of luck. Nottingham (home of Forest) has 102 National Lottery millionaires (equal ninth in the country, with Coventry and Leicester).
They are up against Aston Villa, and Birmingham tops the list of lottery millionaires, with 205 coming from the UK’s second largest city.
In Sunday’s match, Croydon-based Crystal Palace take on Manchester City. There are 133 National Lottery millionaires in Manchester, the sixth most in the country.
But Croydon has had great luck in the People’s Postcode Lottery, with 242 winners in eight postcodes, the seventh biggest total in the country.
Shootout specialists
Nottingham Forest have gone through on penalties in the fourth, fifth and sixth rounds of this season’s FA Cup, the first time a team has had three shootouts in one campaign.
Go first!
London School of Economics Professor Ignacio Palacios-Huerta found, in a study of over 10,000 penalty kicks in major tournaments between 1970 and 2012, that the team going first wins 60% of the time.
Further research by New York University Professor Steven Beams found that going first increased the chances of winning by 22%.
Keepers move
Study from the same period showed keepers dive to their left 46% of the time, right 40% and only stand stay in the middle of the goal 13%. It is unclear what happens the other 1%.
Data looking at World Cup shootouts between 1982 and 2018 found that, of 304 total kicks across 30 matches, 195 were scored. Of those, 57 were aimed down the middle of the goal and 34 were scored - seven of which, if scored or missed, would end the match.
Do it quickly
Time can also be a factor with players waiting 4.5 seconds or more being a third less likely to score (from 90% to 61%).
Age (and legs) count
Psychologist Geir Jordet found that players under 23 were more likely to score, while players who played the entire game were more likely to miss.
He also found that players who needed to score for their team to stay in the game, scored 62% of the time (the overall average for shootouts he studied was 70%). On the flip side to that, players whose team would win if they scored were successful 92% of the time.
Trends
Searches for “penalty shoot-out” trend during every international major football tournament. England’s World Cup exit to Croatia on penalties in 2018 saw a record UK search volume of 272k.
The worldwide record was 8.3m in during the December 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
Trends and search data correct as of 22 April 2025.
ends
Methodology: Data found using Google Trends and Glimpse, as well as these sites:
https://www.londondaily.news/the-uks-luckiest-and-unluckiest-areas-for-winning-the-postcode-lottery/
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